BUFFALO, N.Y. – No. 3 seed Michigan State is set to take on the No. 6 seed Louisville Cardinals in the Round of 32. 

The Cardinals finished the regular season 24-10 and 11-7 in ACC play. However, their resume lacks quality wins; they were 0-6 against teams that received a No. 6 seed or better in the NCAA Tournament. 

Louisville is coached by Pat Kelsey, who has completely turned the program around. The former Winthrop and College of Charleston coach has made the NCAA Tournament appearances in his first two seasons on the job. The state of Louisville basketball was in disarray before Kelsey took over, and was viewed as the laughing stock of power conference teams just a few years ago.

“Louisville has bounced back after a couple of rough years, Pat’s done a really good job with the program,” MSU head coach Tom Izzo said.

The Cardinals are reliant on their three-point shooting, which is the fifth best in the nation and rarely apply pressure at the rim, which is a contrasting style to the Spartans’ offensive attack.

The Spartans’ defense allows 26 three-point attempts per game ranking near the bottom of all of Division I. So, the Cardinals will have an opportunity to get open looks from deep.

Kelsey will have to manage Saturday’s contest without his star freshman, guard Mikel Brown Jr.. The highly-regarded prospect has been ruled out for the first weekend of the tournament with a back injury.

“Everybody on every team that is still playing in college basketball right now, whether it be the NCAA Tournament or something else, nobody is playing at 100 percent,” Kelsey said.

The short-handed Cardinals got off to a hot start in their First Round matchup, holding a 21-point lead over No. 11 seed South Florida with 12 minutes remaining in the second half. However, USF cut the deficit to two possessions late, but Louisville held on to get the first NCAA Tournament victory under Kelsey’s tenure.

“It was a crazy game, in some ways it was two games,” Izzo said.

With this being the first time in Kelsey’s career that he has advanced, it brings a quick scouting turnaround for the Round of 32 on Saturday.

“Obviously, they’re really well coached, so there’s never enough time to get ready for a really good team like that,” Kelsey said. “ If you had five days, you’d probably run out of time. You really have to simplify things on the one-day turnaround and lock in on the core mat and potatoes on what you have to do to beat them, and I think our guys have been very attentive to that.”

There is a stark tournament experience differential between the two head coaches. This will be Izzo’s 22nd appearance in the Round of 32, where he has a 16-5 record, and it is Kelsey’s first.

Inside the X’s and O’s of the Cardinals’ offense

In an offense led by its guard play, Louisville’s backcourt flourishes on shooting, ball movement, and dribble-drive penetration. Think UCLA offense, but more focused on perimeter shooting. 

It’s primarily ran through a four-out, one-in style set. Depending on the personnel, the Cardinals will switch to a five-out set at times to give opposing defenses a different look. 

For Kelsey, you’ll see the 6-foot-8, 240-pound junior forward Vangelis Zougris manning that “one-in” set, focusing on hard pick and rolls for guards Ryan Conwell, J’Vonne Hadley, and at times, Isaac McKneely if he’s knocking perimeter shots down. 

When Louisville decides to change into a “five-out” set, MSU will see 7’0 250 lb, Aly Khaliifa, who shoots the ball at a 41.7% clip from three (25-60 3PT on the season), in the position where Zougris would be. 

Stretching the floor with Khalifia opens the offense for the guards to get to the rim and generate perimeter shots. 

In the Cardinals’ matchup against USF, they shot 52% from three on 25 attempts, many of which were generated from “drive and kick” passing opportunities. Which, of course, doesn’t work when you have poor spacing, which most of the time, Louisville spreads the floor nicely.

As a whole, Louisville currently sits 8th in the nation in 3PT attempts per game, attempting 32.1 on average, while noticeably ranking 5th in made threes per game with 11.6, equaling 36.1% on average. 

About the guard play that can take you out of games within minutes

For a group that averages 84.8 points per game (20th in NCAA DI), the guards contribute approximately 58.9 points per game of that total, which is nearly 70% of the team’s offensive production this season. 

Of course, Brown Jr.’s injury hurts Kelsey’s squad badly, and that percentage number, but for the electric freshman who has played 21 games of 33 total this season, the Cardinals know how to win without him. 

Conwell is a big part of that solution of generating offensive production through the backcourt. For Conwell, he’s scored 103 points in the past five games (20.6 PPG in that stretch) and has found success from plenty of spots on the floor. 

With the sets that Louisville runs on offense as explained above, Conwell reaps the rewards of an offense that, when spaced well, allows him to go to work. His time at Xavier last season definitely helped, seeing much more time as the primary ball handler and facilitator, compared to his two seasons before with South Florida (2022-23) and Indiana State (2023-24). 

Last season as a junior, he assisted nearly 15% of his Xavier teammates’ baskets when he was on the court and posted the lowest turnover rate (12.8) among Musketeers players with minute shares of 70% or more.

For Kelsey, it’s not just about Conwell; it’s a team for a reason. 

“Our team is about the power in the unit,” Kelsey said. “The guys that come off the bench, Adrian Wooley has really stepped up since Mikel has been out… We are a team, it’s 25 strong, not just one guy.”

Kelsey’s group knows how to win the small number of close games they’ve played this season, sitting 3-1 on the season in games where the final score differential is four or less.

What to see on the defensive end from MSU and how the Spartans could slow down the Cardinals

Luckily, if you’re Michigan State, you’re coming off one of the best defensive efforts we have seen this season, as MSU seemed to be rotating with ease. 

Simply put, if you like NBA2K, the Spartans were pressing R1/RB and switching defensive assignments with great success. Especially in the opening 20 minutes, MSU held the Bison to a 33.3% clip from the field (10-30), and 13.3% (2-15) from three.

The Spartans forced 12 turnovers on Thursday, with a big focus on ball screens. The same focus needs to be brought to Saturday, especially with the constant spacing and ball screens Louisville will send on/off-ball. 

For the Spartans, there are some actions that the Cardinals will show that you have be worried about. Specifically off of that five-out set. It’s your traditional two guards extended straight back beyond the arc in line with both elbows.

The forwards will be near the corners, with usually either Khalifia or Zougaris being the “floating forward.” Which in a sense, is usually, your biggest forward for a universal five-out action. 

Here’s where MSU could get caught ball-watching. The ball starts as the ball-handling guard crosses to the left wing, handing the ball off to the guard at that location. It’s not always the same, but for example, we have seen Wooley as the initial ball handler to start the action. 

Once the handoff is completed with the guard on the left, Wooley (or whoever is in that initial ball handler position), will set a cross screen to the right elbow, giving the option for the guard on the right wing (usually Conwell), to come off a screen for a look at a straightaway three. 

Well, this is where MSU could get caught ball-watching. It’s not an action for a straightaway three – as soon as Conwell reads the off-ball screen coverage, he has the choice to come off it, or cut backdoor to the rim. 

While that action is happening, Wooley, still on the right elbow, will wait for Zougaris/Khalifia to pop up exactly to that straightaway location beyond the arc. 

Of course, this isn’t universal. It’s not going to be the same set every play, nor the same student-athletes in those roles. 

However, for the Cardinals, it’s a set that they can do a lot of things off of, and for Michigan State, you have to always see, ball and man, you can’t get caught ball watching or else you give great opportunities for the Cardinals to get easy buckets, anywhere on the floor.  

At the end of the day, weakside help and communication will be vital for MSU. Against North Dakota State, the Spartans didn’t send a full double team to the blocks until the forwards for the Bison were directly in the paint (think of Cam Ward’s defensive first half). 

The defensive mindset shouldn’t change much from Thursday, stay home, hedge on ball screens, rotate and force the Cardinals into drive and kick contested threes. 

Writers predictions

Tim: Michigan State just needs to play its game. Starting the game with physicality and intensity on the defensive end, we saw when USF cranked up the ball pressure in the second half, Louisville struggled, especially with the absence of Brown. 

The Cardinals are going to take a lot of threes, which means the Spartans need to secure defensive rebounds and get in transition. Spread out offenses have tended to give MSU troubles this season, primarily, UCLA a week ago, defensive rotations need to be crisp.

The Spartans slowed down North Dakota State guard Damari Wheeler-Thomas in the First Round, as he was held scoreless in the first half. If MSU can do the same thing to Cronwell, another Sweet 16 appearance is likely.

On offense, I’d like to see Spartans forward Jordan Scott get going. The freshman hasn’t been as impactful as earlier in the season when he burst onto the scene and into the starting lineup for MSU. 

Feed the hot hand in center Carson Cooper, he’s coming off a career-high 20 points against NDSU and Louisville doesn’t have a sizable frontcourt, although Fru and Zougris are capable bigs. As always, MSU guard Jeremy Fears Jr. needs to get downhill; only good things can come from it, either with his scoring or passing.

Final prediction: The coaching experience reveals itself from the jump and the Spartans have the answers for Louisville’s high-powered attack while converting inside on the offensive end, MSU wins by double-digits. 

Jack: Outside of the X’s and O’s, not much more to say. Defense is what this Spartan team thrives on, and for Michigan State to be 19-1 when holding opponents to under 70 points this season, that same recipe has to be the same. 

A tall ask, but if the Spartans play the same style of defense and energy we saw on Thursday, a dance to the Sweet 16 could be the movement needed for the music track of the madness this month brings.

Offensively, it would be a shock to see the production drop. It’s now been back-to-back games for MSU where they have shot over 45% from both the field, and three point line in its most recent contests. 

Barring any disaster in the opening 10 minutes (I don’t need to remind MSU fans of slow starts), I think MSU maintains control of the game for most of the game, which is critical against a team in Louisville that loves to run the floor and push the pace. 

Final prediction: MSU sees 25+ minutes of game time with the lead, holding off the Cardinals by eight.

Tip off for the matchup between No. 3 seed Michigan State and No. 6 seed Louisville is set for 2:45 p.m. on Saturday at the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y. Catch the radio broadcast on Impact 89FM with Jack Stager and Joe Dez on the call. https://impact89fm.org/listen-live/