Precursor: I’m not a facts guy, I’ve watched college football my whole life and make my picks based on my gut. On occasion, my gut will be skewed by alternate jerseys, stereotypes I’ve had since I was 10 and home ‘dogs because they’re usually barking. Also, I’d never include any MSU game in these picks but take the Spartans (+1) in Lincoln today against Nebraska.
Last week: 3-2, Illinois (+17) and Boston College(+19.5) were unable to cover their big lines but my lock of the week West Virginia (-12) was one of the easiest covers of the entire year. Northwestern won outright (+10) and Texas (-2) scored in the last second to beat and cover against Texas Tech. 3-2 not bad but still mad I took the bait in the Boston College game.
Indiana (+28) @ Michigan, 4:00 p.m., FOX
Even though Michigan has covered big lines all year, specifically Wisconsin and Penn State, 28 points seems like too much in this spot. Indiana is no powerhouse but they have the ability to move the football with quarterback Peyton Ramsey and head coach Tom Allen just exudes a guy who keeps it close for a half. I’d expect Michigan to break away in the second half but Indiana’s defense is good enough to hold Michigan from breaking it open.
Arizona (+11) @ #8 Washington State, 10:30 p.m., ESPN
Washington State and Garner Minshew have been really good since an early-season loss against USC but I think this is a letdown spot for the Cougars. After a slow start under Kevin Sumlin, The Wildcats and Khalil Tate have picked it up. Washington State is 9-1 ATS but Arizona is the perfect trap game as Washington State is looking forward to their Apple Cup matchup next week against Washington. Also, Arizona is 4-1 in their last 5 against the AP top 10. Bear Down.
Boston College (-1) @ Florida State, 3:30 p.m., ESPN2
After a disappointing performance for BC last week against Clemson, the public expects the Golden Eagles to have a let down against Florida State. I completely disagree with this line because Florida State simply is not good and might have the worst offensive line in college football this season. BC under Steve Addazio have always had good defenses and it showed last week holding Clemson to 20 points. I’d expect whoever is under center for FSU – be it Deondre Francois or James Blackman – to be under siege all day, take BC.
Missouri (+6.5) @ Tennessee, 3:30 p.m, CBS
I truly don’t understand this line at all, I understand Tennessee is coming their biggest win of the season against rival Kentucky but Tennessee has been an “every other week” team this year. Tennessee gets smoked by Florida than beats a good Auburn team, I think the Vols come back to earth this week against a decent Mizzou team. Drew Lock can stretch the field and Tennessee’s defense has really struggled against good QB play all getting blown out by West Virginia who plays a similar passing scheme as Missouri. Take the Tigers.
Lock of the Week: Oregon (-3.5) vs. Arizona State 10:30 p.m, PAC 12 Network
Quack! Quack! Quack! I love the Ducks this week against the Hermanator and the Sun Devils. This is strictly gut game as I’ll always trust Oregon at Autzen against lesser opponents. Jacob Herbert has shredded bad teams all year, and Arizona State isn’t a bad team as they won three straight but they’re no Washington State or Stanford. Also Oregon plans on wearing all black uniforms tonight which is at least a 10-point advantage in my book. Empty the account on the Ducks. Oregon’s lost three of their last four so I love them to bounce back.