EAST LANSING- With just one week remaining in the MLB regular season, we’re starting to get a really sound picture of what the first-round playoff matchups might be.
With a few divisions up for grabs and lots of teams vying for final wild card spots, there’s a lot left to be determined in this final week, so here’s everything you need to know.
Division Races
For the most part, all the division races are over this season. The only two teams to clinch their division titles officially are the Milwaukee Brewers and the Cleveland Guardians in the National League and American League Central respectively.
The Philadelphia Phillies, one of the best teams in the National League all season long, had a chance to win the N.L. East this weekend night in Queens with two wins over the Mets.
However, New York held them off while winning the series three out of four, including wins on Saturday and Sunday. The Phillies’ magic number to win the East remains at one.
The New York Yankees’ magic number of winning the American League East is also one after the Orioles dropped two out of three from Detroit over the weekend while the Yankees swept Oakland in their final games at the Coliseum.
New York is primed to lock up their third division title in six years as they have a three-game set this week in the Bronx against the Orioles, needing only one win to lock it up.
The Yankees aren’t the only team with an opportunity to take down the team right beneath them in the standings and clinch a division title, as the Houston Astros will get that chance with three games at home against the Seattle Mariners this week.
The Astros magic number is down to two, and one win in this series will clinch them their seventh division title in the last eight seasons.
The last divisional race is also the closest, as the Dodgers maintain a three-game lead on the Padres heading into the season’s final week.
The two teams will match up against one another at Chavez Ravine at Dodger Stadium starting Tuesday night.
The Dodgers can clinch the eleventh division title in twelve years with a series win against San Diego, but if the Padres can manage to sweep L.A, they’d have the lead in the division and the tie-breaker with three games to play.
Wild Card Races
The Wild Card races are extremely tight on both sides of the ball, as the second and third wild card spots are both still fully up for grabs in both the American League and the National League.
Although teams like San Diego and Baltimore are sitting comfortably atop the Wild Card standings, there is still much left unsolved in the playoff picture.
As of the end of play on September 22, there are four teams within two games of each other for the final two spots in the American League playoff picture.
The Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals are the two teams currently sitting in the final two wild card spots, with the Minnesota Twins one game behind them, and the Seattle Mariners one game behind the Twins.
The Tigers have been the hottest team in the league for the better part of a month, as they’ve gone from down 9.5 games out to sitting in a Wild Card spot from August 22 to now.
Detroit has gone 18-8 in that time to roar back into the race, and they have a favorable schedule coming up this week with three-game sets against the Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago White Sox at home.
The Royals, on the other hand, have been a completely different story. They have lost seven straight games and seventeen of their last twenty-six.
Kansas City will finish their season on the road with three-game sets in Washington and Atlanta, but they do have the advantage of the fact that they have the tie-breaker over Detroit after finishing 7-6 against them this season.
The Twins have struggled similarly to the Royals as of late, as they have dropped seven of their last ten games and twenty of their last thirty-one.
Minnesota will host the Marlins and Orioles at Target Field this week and will need to win as many games as possible.
The best thing the Twins have going for them right now, is their tie-breakers over the Tigers and Royals, as they finished 7-6 against both division foes this year.
The Mariners have the steepest hill to climb ahead of them out of any team remaining in the American League Wild Card picture. Seattle has won six out of nine but lost Sunday to drop them back to two games behind.
They play three games in Houston this week before wrapping up their regular season at home against the Oakland A’s. Seattle will need to win as many games as possible and get some help from the teams ahead of them to get in.
The National League side of the bracket is also still incomplete, as there are three teams still in contention for the remaining two Wild Card spots.
The Mets and Diamondbacks are currently tied at 87-69 in the final two spots, with the Braves on their heels just two games behind at 85-71.
The Mets and the Braves will open up a pivotal three-game series in Atlanta on Tuesday night.
The Mets can clinch a playoff spot by taking two out of three from Atlanta, but if the Braves can sweep New York at home they would be sitting in a playoff spot with three games remaining.
We will have to wait and see what happens in this series before we can get a clear picture of how the final standings will shake up, but the Mets will finish their season with three games in Milwaukee, while the Braves finish up at home against the Royals.
The Diamondbacks control their own destiny as they wrap up their season against the Giants and Padres at home.
Arizona may have a chance at catching San Diego in the final series of the season, but it will depend on how the Padres play in Los Angeles earlier in the week.
The Diamondbacks are 46-25 since the beginning of July, and the Mets are 46-28 in that same time span.
Atlanta has not been too far behind going 39-34 in that time period, but it’ll all come down to this last week to determine who will make the playoffs in the N.L.
Final Predictions/ Takeaways
There are not a lot of games left for the 30 MLB teams in the regular season, but there is still plenty up for grabs heading into this last week.
With what we know now and looking forward to this last stretch of games, here are my seeding predictions for the 2024 MLB playoffs.
American League
- Yankees (Bye)
- Guardians (Bye)
- Astros
- Orioles
- Twins
- Tigers
National League
- Dodgers (Bye)
- Phillies (Bye)
- Brewers
- Padres
- Mets
- Diamondbacks
I’m picking the Twins and Tigers to lock up the last two spots in the A.L. and the Mets and Diamondbacks to get the job done in the N.L.
I believe the Tigers’ hot play and favorable schedule will lead them back to the playoffs for the first time in ten years, and the Twins will play well at home this week while the Royals continue to struggle and the Mariners fall too far behind in Houston.
I also think the Mets and Diamondbacks’ lead over the Braves will prove to be insurmountable, and the Mets will get it done in Atlanta this week, while Arizona wins enough games to get into the playoffs for the second straight season.
I am also picking the Yankees, Phillies, Astros, and Dodgers to lock up the comfortable leads they all have in their divisions.