(OPINION) Ten NFL Breakout Candidates This Upcoming Season
With NFL Training Camp now taking center stage and the preseason’s inaugural week in the books, the regular season is inching closer than we realize. Following a dramatic offseason that saw an array of stars change teams, as well as a star-studded rookie class enter the NFL, a few players are primed for breakout campaigns. There’s no reason to waste more time, so let’s kick this list off.
1. Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers
A former five-star prospect, he boasted record-breaking numbers across his tenure at Alabama, winning a Heisman Trophy as a sophomore. The 23-year-old quarterback experienced success in college before being selected by Carolina (who parted with a haul of draft picks and DJ Moore in their pursuit of Young) with the top pick of the 2023 NFL Draft.
In his rookie season though, with a plethora of assets departing Charlotte, Young faced the most adversity of his career. In a disastrous rookie campaign, the former Heisman winner started 16 of 17 games, throwing for a feeble 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions en route to accumulating a 2-14 record as a starter. The season was so pitiful in Carolina that first-year head coach Frank Reich was fired before the season concluded.
Young was not at fault for a large portion of the Panthers’ misgivings in 2023 though, as both the offensive line and group of weapons supporting Young were subpar. Young’s situation in Carolina has significantly improved heading into his sophomore season, with rookie general manager Dan Morgan and rookie head coach Dave Canales now leading the charge.
Canales was the play-caller in career years for both Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith, being referred to as the “quarterback whisperer” across NFL circles.
The Panthers used three of their first two draft picks on potential offensive difference-makers in South Carolina’s Xavier Legette and Texas standouts Jonathan Brooks and Ja’Tavion Sanders, while also trading for Steelers wideout Diontae Johnson.
However, Morgan and Canales’ crucial offseason additions were not limited to just skill positions. In an attempt to fortify the offensive line and express further commitment to Young, the Panthers signed guards Robert Hunt and Damian Lewis to lucrative contracts to join a Panthers unit up front that has a bookend left tackle in Ikem Ekwonu
With all of the changes coming to Charlotte, Young taking a significant step forward should be in the cards.
2. Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, New York Giants
As a former 2022 top-five pick, Thibodeaux has shown glimpses of potential superstardom but has yet to blossom into a bona fide superstar. The 23-year-old pass rusher racked up four sacks as a rookie before soaring to 11.5 in his sophomore campaign.
Though Thibodeaux’s sack numbers increased in 2023, the former Oregon star accrued a measly pass-rush win rate of 6.4%, compared to his 2022 number of 9.5%.
In the Big Apple, blitz-heavy defensive coordinator Wink Martindale was not retained, alongside outside linebackers coach Drew Wilkins. With Shane Bowen coming to town, Bowen has a penchant for getting the most out of his edge rushers, as evidenced by his time with the Titans.
During Bowen’s tenure with Tennessee, Harold Landry cemented himself as one of the league’s best pass rushers, racking up 12 sacks and 75 combined tackles in his first season with Bowen as the defensive play-caller.
New York also acquired one of the NFL’s best defensive linemen Brian Burns to complement Thibodeaux in a fearsome defensive front for the Giants. Burns has 20.5 sacks across his last two seasons and 46 across his career, so Thibodeaux will see more sustained success at getting to the quarterback with Burns now in the fold to take some pressure off the former five-star recruit.
While expectations are not high for the Giants in 2024, Thibodeaux very well can live up to the lofty expectations set for him coming out of college going into year three.
3. Khalil Shakir, WR, Buffalo Bills
Snow is not the only thing that flurried in Buffalo this offseason. The Bills roster changed drastically following the trade of Stefon Diggs to Houston, as Josh Allen spent the offseason searching for his next WR1.
Athletic specimen Keon Coleman was drafted by the Bills in the second round with hopes of succeeding Diggs, but according to Pro Football Focus, 86% of the Bills’ 2023 wide receiver targets are now vacated, meaning targets can be plentiful in the Buff.
With the depth chart wide open, third-year pass-catcher Khalil Shakir has ample opportunity to establish himself as the top dog in the Bills’ receiver room alongside Coleman.
The former fifth-round pick racked up 10 catches for 75 yards and a touchdown during the playoffs and hauled in six balls for 105 yards in the Bills’ regular-season finale, as the Boise State product’s promise and rapport with Allen have been showcased to this point.
Shakir’s main competition for targets in Buffalo comes from Coleman and free agent acquisition Curtis Samuel, who projects as more of a gadget player in offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s scheme.
A career-best year very well could be in the cards for Shakir, who could step up as a focal point for one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses.
4. Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
In the wake of Joe Burrow’s injury last season, expectations were far from met in Cincinnati. Joe Mixon was traded to Houston in March, and the volume could be there for second-year back Chase Brown to step into an every-down role for a high-powered offense that’ll often find themselves in scoring situations.
The former fifth-round pick can handle workhorse-level volume, as Brown had 328 carries in his senior season at Illinois, where he shined as the focal point of the Illini offense, scoring 10 touchdowns and speeding his way to 1,643 rushing yards before jetting off to the pros.
The Bengals did sign Zack Moss to push Brown for some early-down work, but Moss had never run for over 481 yards and four touchdowns before his breakout performance in 2023, putting the sustainability of his strong play in question.
Despite the signing of Moss, it was Brown who was taking handoffs with the first team at Bengals training camp, indicating that Brown is atop the backfield contest. Brown saw 10 or more touches in four of his final six games in 2023, which was headlined by a 54-year touchdown catch-and-run in Week 14.
While draft capital may not support the Illinois product, Brown has made the most of his opportunities with the expanded workload, exuding optimism about his ability to admirably replace Mixon.
5. Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Detroit Lions
As the Detroit Lions got blazing hot down the stretch of the 2023 NFL Playoffs, the sky’s the limit in Motown headed into 2024.
A lot of the attention on the Lions’ defensive front goes to Aidan Hutchinson, but with Onwuzurike healthy and DJ Reader signing with Detroit, the interior of Aaron Glenn’s defensive line should see noticeable improvement.
The 2021 second-round pick missed the entirety of 2022 due to back surgery, and after seeing a reduced role in 2023, Onwuzurike seems primed for a breakout campaign in year four.
With a plethora of star power across the roster, the 26-year-old has been Detroit’s biggest standout in training camp now that he is at the healthiest point of his young career.
Racking up 35 tackles as a rookie, the powerful poise of Onwuzurike should see that number skyrocket for head coach Dan Campbell and company.
6. Luke Musgrave, TE, Green Bay Packers
Staying in the NFC North, Green Bay is home to one of the most exciting young offenses in football, with Jordan Love being the new franchise cornerstone under center for head coach Matt LaFleur and a potential breakout candidate of their own.
In his first season as a full-time starter, Love threw 32 touchdown passes but only one of those was to Musgrave, a 2023 second-round pick.
The Oregon State product started nine games in his rookie campaign, but missed six weeks due to a lacerated kidney, though Musgrave did reach the end zone for a second time on a 38-yard strike from Love in Green Bay’s wild-card round victory over the Dallas Cowboys.
Musgrave caught 34 passes in his rookie season, averaging 10.4 yards per reception in a promising showing from Green Bay’s tight end of the future.
Though Musgrave is competing with Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks for targets, the second-year man could take a significant step forward if the opportunity arises.
7. Jahan Dotson, WR, Washington Commanders
There’s a new sheriff in town in our nation’s capital, with former Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels taking the reins for the Commanders after being drafted No. 2 overall this past April. Change is quickly coming for the Commanders with new head coach Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury aiming to get the most out of Washington’s promising skill position players.
With the most talented quarterback DC has seen since Robert Griffin III being handed the keys to the franchise, the wide receiver duo of Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson are the biggest benefactors, as production had been hard to come by in recent seasons for the dynamic duo.
Despite missing five games, the former Penn State standout caught seven touchdowns as a rookie, before suffering a statistical regression a season ago due to poor quarterback play.
While Dotson’s role steadily increased across his time in red and yellow, Curtis Samuel still held a firm grip on Washington’s starting slot position. However, Samuel is now in Buffalo, and Dotson has been operating as the primary slot receiver for the Commanders in training camp.
With his newly-established role, Dotson is a sure bet for success in year three, as according to Pro Football Focus, the 434 catches accrued by Cardinals’ slot receivers from 2019-2022 (Kingsbury’s tenure as head coach in Arizona) were second in football.
With Daniels at the helm for the Commanders, better days and possibly even the best days of Dotson’s career are on the horizon.
8. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
On the heels of a sizzling showing during his tenure in Columbus that saw him rack up a record-breaking 1,602 receiving yards as a sophomore, Jaxon Smith-Njigba was among the top prospects in the 2023 NFL Draft.
The No. 20 overall pick headed to Seattle to play alongside DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to instantly create one of the best receiver trios in the National Football League. However, under offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, Seattle was typically a run-heavy offense, resulting in just 63 receptions for 628 yards and four scores at only 21 years old for “JSN”.
Waldron left Seattle for Chicago in the offseason, and the Seahawks stayed local to find his replacement, hiring Washington OC Ryan Grubb to be the next offensive play-caller for a star-studded offense.
Grubb runs a pro-style offense that loves to air the ball out, as his Husky offense supported three receivers drafted in the first two days of the 2024 NFL Draft, with both Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk eclipsing 1,000 yards.
Fresh off his lowest receiving output since his rookie season, Lockett’s age is starting to catch up to him, meaning Seattle’s WR2 job could be Smith-Njigba’s for the taking. With further opportunity expected, Smith-Njigba could burst onto the scene similarly to his tenure at Ohio State.
With JSN’s game-breaking explosiveness and his blossoming rapport with Geno Smith, Smith-Njigba cementing himself as one of the game’s best young receivers would be far from a surprise.
9. Trenton Simpson, LB, Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore general manager Eric DeCosta has a knack for talent evaluation, most prominently on the defensive side of the football, hitting on Kyle Hamilton, Justin Madubuike, and Patrick Queen in recent seasons.
After appearing in 15 games as a rookie, 2023 third-rounder Trenton Simpson is on track to become the latest success story on the defensive side of the football.
This offseason, Queen left Baltimore for a payday with the Steelers and Simpson will be the linebacker tasked with replacing the departed star alongside Roquan Smith. Playing alongside one of the NFL’s best linebackers, Baltimore aims to forge a new deadly linebacker duo for the Ravens in Simpson and Smith.
Simpson ran a 4.43 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine, and his quickness is seen as a true asset by new Ravens defensive coordinator Zach Orr.
The Clemson product racked up 72 tackles in his junior season and should yield similar production in an expanded role going into year two, with the Raven’s star-studded defensive unit.
10. Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans
Similarly to Young, a sophomore surge is on the horizon in Music City. Will Levis, the Kentucky product, is set up for continued success after a rookie season that showed promise including a four-touchdown performance in his NFL debut against the Falcons.
The former No. 33 overall pick threw for 5,877 yards and 46 touchdowns across his collegiate tenure at Penn State and Kentucky, showcasing a cannon against some of college football’s toughest defenses, though adjusting to NFL defenses would prove difficult for the freshly 25-year-old.
Also like Young, Levis had a woeful supporting cast in his rookie season with the Titans, with the aging DeAndre Hopkins as the go-to option in Tennessee’s offense. In nine starts, Levis threw eight touchdowns to four interceptions, which was far from as disastrous as Young’s rookie campaign but not encouraging.
In Nashville, Mike Vrabel is out as head coach and Brian Callahan is in, Callahan was one of the masterminds behind the stardom of Joe Burrow, which is a case for optimism with Levis.
Further optimism for the Titans came when general manager Ran Carthon got to spending in the offseason, signing Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, and Tyler Boyd to bolster the skill groups, adding more youth and explosiveness to a Titan offense that was in dire need of it to set Levis up for the long-term.
The Titans continued to fortify Levis’s situation once the NFL Draft hit, drafting Alabama tackle JC Latham with the No. 7 pick. The 21-year-old Latham is primed to protect Levi’s blind side for the foreseeable future while making the jobs of Pollard and Tyjae Spears easier.
With the core of Pollard, Hopkins, Ridley, Spears, and Chig Okonkwo, as well as a regime better suited to his strengths, Levis is set up for a potential leap to superstardom in year two.
